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About-France.com
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the connoisseur's guide to France
Political
parties in France
with a comparison to political parties in Britain and in the USA
July 8th 2024,
Updated
French general election - second round results. Sunday
7th September.
French voters reject the
far right
Final result: the National Rally has been trounced
as French voters turned out en masse to reject the far right.
The official result is:
- New Popular Front (left) 180 seats (including 71 seats for the far left LFI, 64 for the Socialists, 33 for the Greens)
- Ensemble (Macronian centre) - 163 seats
- National Rally (far right) 143 seats
- The Republican Party (right) - 66 seats
- Others: 25 seats
About-France.com
was one of the rare websites/media to predict that the National Rally
would be beaten (see predictions below), but the actual defeat of
the National Rally is even greater than any pundits dared to predict.
The next French government
Will
have to be a coalition. Details will emerge in the course of the week.
It may be a minority coalition, though President Macron will certainly
be hoping for some sort of unity coalition including most of the centre
ground ( excluding the far left LFI and the far right). Finding a Prime
Minister who can win support from across this spectrum may not be easy.
The next PM may well be someone from outside Parliament.
Tactical voting won
through in the second round
The About-France.com
seats
prediction for the second round was: New
Popular
Front (left): 165 seats; National Rally (far right) : 160 seats. Ensemble (Macronian centre) 140
seats ; The "Républicain" party (right) 60. Others: 37.
(Prediction based on opinion polls published in the French
media, plus
seat-by-seat analysis of first round results in key constituencies.)
- Withdrawals Over 220
third-placed candidates from the first round of
voting, whose scores entitled them to stay on the list for the second
round,withdrew, meaning that in most constituencies, the second
round run offs were a simple duel between a far-right RN candidate,
and "republican" anti-RN candidate.
- "Triangular"
second rounds,
with three candidates instead of two, favour the far right RN
candidate, by splitting the anti-RN vote. In the end, the second round
of voting included under 100 constituencies with triangular
elections... and two
with quadrangulars
- Most of the
withdrawals took place in constituencies where the RN stood a
good chance of winning in a triangular battle, but had little chance in
a duel. Many of the remaining triangulars were for seats in
which there was little or no chance of an RN win.
- National unity:
Anti-RN candidates represent a range of different parties, including
the far left LFI, a few Communists, the Socialists, the
Greens,
Macron's "Ensemble" party, and some from the Republican party. The idea
of a government of national unity is being discussed, but it is by no
means sure if such a government would be a viable option.
Following the results of the first round of voting, and the withdrawal of many third-placed candidates, most
polling
institutes suggested that the National Rally would win up to 260 seats,
but would not get an absolute majority.
First
round scores of the main parties (percentage of
votes)
Far right
(National Rally and Reconquest) 34.6% (down 3% on the combined far
right score in the European elections earlier in the month);
New Popular Front (a
union of the Socialsts, the Communists, the Greens and LFI la
France Insoumise) 28.1% - stable;
Ensemble (Macron's
party): 20.3% (up 5.7%), the
Republicans
(traditional Gaullist right) 10.2% (up 3.9%) . Other parties 6.4%..
*****************
Six questions about the
French general elections, 2024
1. Why did Macron
dissolve parliament?
Macron was clearly gambling on
le sursaut républicain,
the "republican wake up call", His first hope was that
moderate
French voters would come out in force to reject the values of the far
right at the coming elections. For the second round of voting, that is exactly what they did.
It was a gamble, a
massive gamble, but was not irrational, particularly under France's
two-round electoral system.
During the three weeks before the first round of
the
elections, and with French voters roughly evenly divided into three
groups, those supporting the far right, those supporting the centre and
moderate right, and those supporting the left, there was
intense pressure on the majority of French voters, who do not want to
see a far-right government, to come out and vote, and back the parties
most likely to be able
to win against the far right, either nationally or locally.
During the week's campaigning for the
second round, the
sursaut
républicain
was strongly encouraged by most of the parties opposed to the far
right.This led to the withdrawal of third-placed candidates followed by
tactical voting, thus ensuring defeat for the far right
candidates in most constituencies.
2.
Did
Macron have a masterplan ?
No doubt. He took a gamble, but not a reckless speculation.
However it is possible that he had not anticipated that France's
left-wing parties, from the social democratic Socialists to the hard
left
Insoumis,
would come
together even before the first round, to unite behind a single
programme and a single candidate in each constituency – but that is
what has happened, with the creation of the NFP -
Nouveau Front Populaire -
, with candidates from the main left-wing parties running under a
single banner.
So yes, Macron certainly had a plan; and while, in
the end, it did put the far right back in their place, it also weakened
Macron's own party.
3. Could 28-year-old
Jordan Bardella have become France's next Prime Minister?
NO. The RN's 34% of the vote in the first round was
considerably less than the 48.4% who voted either for the Popular Front
or for Macron's centrists, let alone the almost 60% who voted for a
broader range of republican parties.
Bardella, from the far-right
Rassemblement National would
only have become France's next Prime Minister
if the RN had emerged with an absolute majority in the French National
Assembly
after the second round of voting on July 7th. In actual fact, Marine Le
Pen and the far right's demands that Bardella should become the next
French PM, were counterproductive, stoking more fear than hope among
French voters.
4. So what if the RN did
demand to form the next French government after July 7th?
This was always an
unlikely
scenario and would only have happened if....:
a.
the RN won an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly, in
which case Macron would have been strongly advised to appoint its candidate as
prime minister. Or
b. the
RN had more seats than any other party, and the other parties
represented in parliament were incapable of forming a coherent coalition
with more deputies in the chamber than the RN.
5. And if the far right had won?
Even
this may be one of the scenarios envisioned by Emmanuel Macron.
If elected to power in 2024, the RN would have then had three
years in
office under the supervision of President Macron. And as some have
suggested, an RN in "
cohabitation"
with a republican president for
three
years would have been able to do far less, and inflict less economic
difficulties on France than would an RN elected for
five
years in 2027, following a hypothetical victory of Marine Le Pen in the
2027 Presidential Election.
It took 49 days for the far-right government of Liz Truss to unravel in
the UK. Three years in power would likely have been more than enough
time for France's far right to disappoint the expectations of
its voters.
6. And what if a far
right government had plunged France into chaos?
The
president has only limited power to prevent the government form
carrying out its programme; right-wing Jacques Chirac had to endure
years of coabitation with Socialist PM Lionel Jospin... and it worked.
But both Chirac and Jospin represented the "republican" centre, the
political middle ground. There is no experience of a president
cohabiting with a government formed by a far-right or far-left party.
However the President can dissolve parliament again, if he wants to,
after one year has elapsed since the previous dissolution. Before that,
Article 16 of the French Constitution allows the President to give
himself, for up to 30 days, "exceptional powers" in the event
of
"a serious and immediate threat to the institutions of the nation or
.... of the fulfilling of national commitments".
,
To
outsiders, the
French
political system can often seem bewildering and difficult to
follow. Compared
to Britain or the USA, France seems to have a plethora of political
parties. Politicians, supposedly of the political right, may be heard
defending positions more often held by political parties of the left in
many other countries, an d in recent French history, a good proportion
of the economic liberalisation that has taken place in France has been
pushed through by governments of the left. Even before the financial
meltdown of 2008, French conservative governments were far more keen on
economic intervention than their counterparts in the main
English-speaking countries; and in 2008, some months after retiring as
British prime minister, Labour's Tony Blair was enthusiastically
received at a party political rally in Paris organised by the
right-wing UMP party of President Sarkozy.
If you are already confused, that is
not too surprising.
Yet perhaps even more confusing to
outsiders is the
fact that in France, a country that prides herself as a model of
democracy, over a third of voters now vote for extremist
parties, either of the left or of the right.
Here therefore is a short guide designed to help outsiders understand
the main French political parties, what they stand for, how they
reached their current situation, and how they compare to apparently
similar parties in the UK and the USA.
Most
minor political parties are omitted from this overview. Such parties
and movements come and go with a disconcerting regularity in France,
sometimes lasting a decade or two, sometimes less than a year. For
outsiders, they mainly serve to blur the main picture of politics in
France. This article therefore only deals with the principal and most
recognised political parties in contemporary France, to the exclusion
of many small parties; even so, the situation may still seem a little
hard to follow !
Important
note:
the word "liberal"
is used, in French politics, and therefore in this
article, in the sense of "economically liberal", or "free market
liberal"; "le
libéralisme", in contemporary French
political
vocabulary, is thus often seen as the opposite of "socialisme", and
the
Left in France use the word "libéral" as a term of abuse to
denigrate
the perceived "anti-social" policies of their right-wing opponents. In
this context, it is more or less the equivalent of "neo
conservative".... making it pretty much the opposite of the word
"liberal" as used in the context of US politics.
The
mainstream right
The main "conservative" party is now known as "
Les
Républicains"
- the Republicans. The then party leader Nicolas Sarkozy engineered a
name
change in 2015, designed to distance the new party from the old, the
UMP -
Union pour un Mouvement Populaire, which had been in
turmoil since the 2012 election defeat.
This is one of the
largest
political parties in France, and the reason that it has achieved this
status is that like Britain's
Conservatives
and America's
Republicans,
it is a party that encompasses a fairly broad range of political
opinion, including traditional conservatives, social liberals, and also
a Thatcherite or neo-conservative right. It also projects itself as a
"Gaullist"
party, and the flagbearer of "Gaullism" in French political life.
Gaullism can best be briefly summed up as a peculiarly French type of
benevolent social conservatism, strongly patriarchal and nationalistic;
but the Gaullism of the UMP and now of the
Républicains, has
moved well
on from that.
In parliament, the
Républicains are
allied with
the
centrist (moderate) federation called the "
UDI";
this was formed in 2012 from an alliance of the
Radical
Party and the "
Nouveau
Centre" , the latter being the rump of the UDF,
the liberal-conservative
party of former President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, together
with half
a dozen smaller centre right and centre left parties.
In recent years the
Républicains have
been in the
doldrums. The party moved to the right when party militants in 2017
chose as the new party chairman Laurent Wauquiez, the furthest right of
the candidates in the running. Wauquiez's election came after many more
moderate party members went over to support Emmanuel Macron, who
appointed as his first prime minister the moderate Républicain Edouard
Philippe. While the party has tried to return to a more centre right
stance since Wauquiez was replaced in 2019, it is still divided and has
lost a lot of electoral support since the start of the Macron
presidency. In 2021 party members chose a more moderate standard-bearer
as their candidate in the 2022 Presidential election, but the candidate
Valérie Pécresse is finding it hard to reestablish a party identity
somewhere between the far right on the one hand and the centre right,
now largely supporting President Macron, on the other.
The other centre right party is the
MoDem,
or
Mouvement
Démocratique
(see below), formed in 2007 when its leader,
François Bayrou,
and his supporters defected from the UDF to form their own social
conservative party
.
See below: parties of the centre.
Although the main French conservative party is now called "
Les
Républicains", it would be quite wrong to imagine that it
is
a French
version of the "
Republican party" in the USA. The
fact is that the
whole political
spectrum in France is further to the left than in the main English
speaking countries. Though
les
Républicains are a party of the right in France, on the
international spectrum of political positioning, most
party activists and representatives would consider themselves closer,
politically, to the Democrats than to the Republicans, if compared to
their counterparts in the USA.
The
Far Right
The far right in French politics is occupied principally by the
Rassemblement
National
(formerly
Front
National)
(National Front, founded by
Jean Marie Le Pen,
and
currently led (2024) by his daughter
Marine le Pen and
Jordan Bardella.
The RN (or FN) is a classic extreme right-wing party, campaigning on a
ticket of national preference, law and order, and
anti-immigration.
Marine Le Pen made it through to the second round
of the presidential election in 2017 and in 2022..
For the 2022 Presidential election, the political geography of the far
right was disturbed by the arrival on the scene of another far
right party, called
Reconquête
(Reconquest), run by
Eric
Zemmour,
a former journalist operating as a lone wolf candidate outside the
framework of any political party, and by Jean-Marie Le Pen's niece
Marion Maréchal .
More
outspoken than Marine le Pen, Zemmour is very much a single issue
candidate, appealing to anti-immigration voters, with little in the way
of policies beyond the question of immigration. In the 2024 European
election, Reconquête took just 5% of the vote.
The
Centre ground
Emmanuel Macron and "Renaissance"
Emmanuel Macron - France's president
Emmanuel
Macron, president of France since 2017, stands in the
centre ground of
politics. But he is not a
traditional politician. Indeed, he had never held elected
office
before, having been brought into government as Economics minister by
Socialist president François Hollande. Prior to that he was a banker,
with
Rothschilds.
He achieved the "impossible" in traditional
politics, reaching the runoff of a presidential election, and
then winning it, without
the help of any traditional or even new political party.
Though by 2022 much of the charisma had worn off, Macron has
been presented as a French equivalent of Tony
Blair or
Barack Obama, a charismatic leader, a militant moderate at the centre
ground of politics, an economic liberal with a social conscience, a
great speaker, and someone with a massive ambition to succeed.
But while Blair and Obama played by the old rules of
politics,
working their way up in a party and then moving the party in their
direction, Macron has played by new rules, building up his
power
base outside the traditional parties – a tactic of the "new
politics"
that has been up to now more frequently exploited by the far right - as
with Nigel Farage in the UK - or the far left - as with Alexis Tsipras
in Greece.
Macron's case stands out from the rest in so far as he is
neither
extreme left nor extreme right but – if the expression is not
a
contradiction in terms – extreme centre. His political
enemies on the
far left have taken to calling him, the former investment banker, the
candidate of "extreme finance".
His case also stands out by
the way that he rose to power so fast, and without the backing of any
political party at all . Macron's machine,
"
En marche
" (
In movement)
was not a party, but a "movement", basically a grass-roots movement
supported by hundreds of thousands of people across France who had
become disillusioned by traditional politics and politicians. In this
respect Macron is an anti-system politician, like
Donald Trump or
Nigel Farage ; but in other more significant ways Macron is a classic
product of the French "system".
His parents were doctors; and he was educated at one of
France's
top lycées, the Lycée Henri IV in Paris. He later
went on to the
ENA
(Ecole Normale d'Administration) - the graduate school attended by
countless future French top civil servants, leaders of
industry
ministers and presidents. Following that he worked for
Rothschilds, before being recruited as economic adviser by President
Hollande . In this respect he is very much a product of the system
–
which is no doubt why he does not believe that the
way to change the system is to defy it, but to change it from within.
Creating "En
Marche" as a movement, not a party, was a masterstroke. It enabled men
and women from other parties, from the Socialists, from the Modem, from
the Greens, even from the Republicans, to give support to the Macron
cross-party movement, while remaining members of their current party.
Examples included former prime ministers Manuel Valls (Socialist) and
Dominique de Villepin (Republicans), or Daniel Cohn Bendit (Greens) and
François Bayrou (Modem) who all gave their backing to Macron
even
before the first round of the presidential election, while there were
still official candidates from other parties in the running.
After his victory in the first round of the 2017
Presidential
election, and facing a runoff against far-right candidate Marine Le
Pen, Macron immediately received backing for the second
round
from both Republican candidate François Fillon, and
Socialist candidate
Benoît Hamon – and was endorsed too by
outgoing president
François Hollande.
Having won the
presidential election, Macron then needed to ensure a majority in the
French Parliament; to do this without a political party could have been
a tall order, so out of the En Marche movement was born a new centrist
political party, "
LREM",
or to give it its
full name, La République en Marche. LREM went on to win an
resounding absolute majority of seats in the 2017 general election.
While many of its elected deputies were political novices, others were
experienced parliamentarians from both left and right, who had already
backed Macron in the presidential election, and joined the new party
rather than go with the imploding Socialist party or with the
Républicains who were moving further to the right.
The name "
LREM" was changed to
Renaissance
in 2022. Following a relative victory in 2022, when his party
lost its absolute majority but remained the largest party in the
National Assembly, Macron appointed Elizabeth Borne as Prime Minister.
Borne saw through some very difficult and politically unpopular
reforms, notably the new retirement laws, but to do so was obliged to
use the notorious article 49.3 of the French constitution, which allows
the government to create new law without parliamentary approval.
In January 2024, Borne was replaced by
Gabriel Attal,
a rising star of French Politics and faithful Macronist. Appointed at
age 34, he became the world's youngest serving prime minister.
Other parties of the Centre
Trying to weave a decidedly tricky course between the left and the
right in French politics, former presidential candidate
François Bayrou
created the
MoDem, or
Mouvement
Démocratique
in an attempt to distance himself and his followers from the perceived
"liberal" policies of President Sarkozy. This party really is in the
political centre: but with just two deputies elected in the 2012
general elections, and Bayrou losing his seat, the Modem's future hangs
in the balance.
After supporting François Hollande in
the second
round of the 2012
presidential elections, and arguably helping him to get elected, Bayrou
lost a lot of credit, and the Modem has since then fallen into relative
insignificance. In 2017, Bayrou was an early backer of Emmanuel Macron
in the presidential race.
On
the left
For
the 2024 general election, the Parti socialiste, the Greens, France
Insoumise, and the Communists are fielding joint candidates in
most constituencies under the label Nouveau
Front Populaire - a name that evokes the 1936 Front Populaire
which, under Léon Blum, brought the Socialists and Radicals to power in
an unexpected election success.
The main party of the left is the
Parti
Socialiste, or Socialist Party (
PS);
formed in 1969 by the alliance of existing parties of the
non-Communist left, the Socialist party had much in common with the old
Labour Party in the UK, before it turned into "New Labour". As was
Britain's Labour Party in the Wilson / Callaghan years, the Parti
Socialiste was very much a socialist party, believing in
nationalisations, a strong welfare state, and participative democracy.
This was the ticket on which François Mitterrand was elected
in 1981 as
the first Socialist President of the Fifth Republic. The Socialist
governments of the 1980s and 1990s moved slowly away from the "old
Socialist" model, first nationalising sectors of the economy, then
doing a U-turn and developing a policy of privatisations; but the party
never really turned itself into a modern social democratic party in the
way most other European socialist parties did. Its failure to modernise
led it to a series of electoral mishaps and disasters from which it has
not (so far?) recovered.
In 2009, the party took
less than 15% of the national vote in the European elections; it was
riven with strife between modernisers, reformers and
traditionalists, as looking not just for a leader to pull it out of
the doldrums, but also a convincing political strategy that will appeal
to voters.
In October 2011, after what can only be described as a
successful process of American-style primary election, party members
and sympathisers chose moderate former party-leader
François Hollande
to be their candidate in the 2012 presidential elections. Hollande beat
runner-up Martine Aubry convincingly in the second round of the
two-stage process. He then went on to win the 2012 Presidential
elections, and spearhead a return of the Socialists to power following
victory in the ensuing general election.
However, having failed singularly to turn round the French
economy, and overseen a worsening of unemployment, Hollande saw his
popularity ratings had sink to a record low by the end of 2014.
In 2014 Hollande appointed a new modernising centre left
prime minister, Manuel Valls, to put through some unpopular but
much-needed economic and social reforms. However the appoitment of
Valls led to an increase of tensions within the Socialist Party and
open rebellion by the left wing of the party. Ensuing in-fighting
between the hard left and the modernisers has left the party struggling
to preserve a semblance of unity. In departmental elections in March
2015, the party lost control of almost half the departmental councils
they previously controlled. In the presidential and general
elections in 2017, led from the left by a new leader Benoît Hamon, they
performed very poorly, losing most of their seats in the French
parliament.
At the start of 2022, in the runup to the spring elections,
the Parti Socialiste remained weak and divided, with the designated
presidential candidate Anne Hidalgo struggling to get into double
figures in the opinion polls. However, in 2024, the party has been
reinvigorated by an up-and-coming figure, the MEP
Raphaël Glucksmann.
Historically, the other main party of
the French left had been the
Parti
Communiste, or communist party (
PCF).
In the 2012 elections, the Communists - with their allies of the Front
de Gauche - only managed to win 10 seats in the French parliament -
down from 17 in 2007. Long
considered as stalinist, the party did not abandon its attachment to
the soviet social model until 1976, shortly before it entered
government as a minor partner to the Socialists.
Unlike the Italian Communist Party, the French Communist
Party
did not reinvent itself after the fall of soviet communism in the
1990s; the result was a series of internal fractures, with the once
monolithic party splitting into different factions, the refounders, the
reformers and the orthodoxists. Once attracting over 20% of voters in
French elections, the PC now attracts less than 5%.
The other main party of the centre left is
Europe
Ecologie Les
Verts,
or the
Green
Party. Thanks to an electoral pact with the Socialists,
the Greens won 18 seats in the 2012 legislative elections, but were not
part of the government. Their great strengths are as a party of local
government, with key positions in many city councils, and as a party in
the European parliament. The mainstream French Green party has
traditionally been an ally of the Socialists, though other French
greens, and indeed other environmentalist parties, are allied to the
centre or the centre right. But with environmental issues
fast becoming
a major platform for all main political parties, the survival of the
Greens as a political force in their own right is not guaranteed. The
party virtually fell apart in 2016 on account of internal rivalries and
splits between those wishing to hang on to some kind of power through
an alliance with the Socialists, and those wanting the Green party to
go it alone. In 2017 former EELV leader Daniel Cohn-Bendit supported
Emmanuel Macron.
After doing very well in local elections in 2020, when they took the
town halls of several major French cities, including Bordeaux, Grenoble
and Strasbourg, the Greens have regrouped and were able to conduct an
orderly selection process to choose their candidate for the
2022
presidential elections. In this, the MEP Yannick Jadot, reputed to be a
pragmatic centrist Green, narrowly beat his more radical left-wing
rival Sandrine Rousseau, giving rise to fears that some of the Greens'
more militant supporters may go over to La France Insoumise (see Far
Left, below).
The
Far Left
Both the PS and the PCF have struggled to maintain credibility as
left-wing parties, faced with the rise of social democracy in the
political centre, and the emergence of new "extreme left wing" parties
to their left. The Far Left (Extrême gauche) has long been a
resilient
and active force in French politics, and parties such as
Lutte
Ouvrière (Workers' Struggle) and
LCR (the
Revolutionary Communist League) have attracted support – and
sympathy –
in a way that similar parties in most other European countries could
only dream of.
More recently, with the ageing of their historic
leaders, these parties have given way to newer structures. One, the "
Parti
de Gauche" (PG) founded in 2008 had two deputies,
dissident members of the Socialist Party; another, the NPA (
Nouveau
Parti Anticapitaliste),
was founded in 2009, to propose a
complete economic alternative to current forms of western society. For
the 2012 elections, the PG aligned itself with the Communists under the
title "
Front
de Gauche" - picking up 10 seats, essentially in
traditionally communist-voting parts of France.
For the 2017 and 2022 elections, the PG and the
Communists
fell in behind firebrand ex-Socialist
Jean-Luc Mélenchon to campaign in the presidential election
under the
banner "
La
France Insoumise"
(Unsubmissive France), an anti-capitalist anti-system
anti-European movement of the far left. Mélenchon - who is
an excellent
orator and comes over well in TV debates - surprised the
pundits
by taking 19.5% of the vote; in 2022, he took 21.95% of votes..
At the start of 2024, Mélenchon remains the most
high-profile figure on the left in French politics, but just as
controversial.
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